14% — Will Keir Starmer leave office?
Kalshi 14% · 4 contracts · $703 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 17:36:55 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 19¢ Kalshi $703 (weight 100%)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Naftali Bennett — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Israel Katz — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Naftali Bennett — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T17:20:49.143Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/keir-starmer-resign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Keir%20Starmer%20leave%20office%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev