21% — Will Keir Starmer leave office?
Kalshi 21% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 20:02:31 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 98%)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Naftali Bennett — 11¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 2%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-09T19:20:52.369Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/keir-starmer-resign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Keir%20Starmer%20leave%20office%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev