13% — Will Keir Starmer leave office?
Kalshi 13% · 3 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 10:09:44 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 27¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 99%)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Naftali Bennett — 5¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 1%)
- Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Naftali Bennett — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T09:20:59.263Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/keir-starmer-resign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Keir%20Starmer%20leave%20office%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev