4% — Will Alistair Docherty win the Colonial Life Charity Classic
Kalshi 4% · 12 contracts · $24K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:33:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Alistair Docherty has a 13% chance of winning the Colonial Life Charity Classic, a PGA Tour event. The relatively low probability reflects Docherty's current position in the competitive field; the probability would rise with strong recent tournament results or fall if other competitors demonstrate superior form heading into the event. The primary uncertainty resolver is the tournament itself, which will definitively determine the winner and collapse all probabilities to either 0% or 100%. Current trading activity shows modest interest ($29 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market conviction around this specific outcome compared to competing favorites like Ryan Blaum (25%) and Blades Brown (11%).

Key factors:
- Docherty's recent PGA Tour performance and world ranking relative to the field competing in this specific event
- Comparison of implied probability (13%) to historical win rates for players with similar rankings and recent form
- The Colonial's course setup and historical data on which player profiles tend to perform well there
- Betting volume and consensus odds from other major sportsbooks outside Kalshi to identify potential mispricings
- Docherty's status as healthy and confirmed to be competing in the tournament on the announced dates

Contracts:
- Will Blades Brown win the UNC Health Championship?: Blades Brown — 10¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 29%)
- Will Doc Redman win the UNC Health Championship?: Doc Redman — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 20%)
- Will Seung-Yul Noh win the UNC Health Championship?: Seung-Yul Noh — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 14%)
- Will Carson Young win the UNC Health Championship?: Carson Young — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will Hunter Eichhorn win the UNC Health Championship?: Hunter Eichhorn — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will Noah Goodwin win the UNC Health Championship?: Noah Goodwin — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will Jeremy Paul win the UNC Health Championship?: Jeremy Paul — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- Will John Pak win the UNC Health Championship?: John Pak — 4¢ Kalshi $881 (weight 4%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.864Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kftour
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alistair%20Docherty%20win%20the%20Colonial%20Life%20Charity%20Classic
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev