16% — Kimi K3 released by…
Leader: June 30 at 16% · Polymarket 16% · 2 contracts · $346 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 41% probability reflects market expectation that Kimi K3 will be released by June 30, 2026. The estimate appears driven by recent activity in AI model releases and typical development timelines for major language model updates. The main uncertainty centers on whether Kimi's development schedule compresses into the next two months or extends beyond this window. Claude 5's higher market pricing (28-42¢ for June 30 release) suggests traders view it as more likely to arrive first, creating competitive pressure on release timing. The resolution date of June 30, 2026 is approximately 58 days away, meaning any official announcement or leak about launch dates would significantly shift probabilities. Current trading volume remains modest, with the Kimi K3 contract averaging $116 in daily volume, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price movement on new information.

Key factors:
- Kimi K3 June 30 contract trades at 42¢ while the May 31 deadline trades at 18¢, indicating markets assign roughly 2.3x higher probability to the later date
- Claude 5 June 30 contract prices at 28¢, nearly matching Kimi K3's 42¢, suggesting traders view these as competing release windows rather than both occurring
- Trading volume on these contracts ($100-$133 daily) is substantially lower than Claude 5 May 31 ($3,669 daily), indicating less market confidence in Kimi timing estimates
- No officially announced release date exists for Kimi K3, meaning current probabilities rely on inference from development patterns and competitive timelines
- The 58-day window to resolution means the probability is sensitive to any credible announcements, leaks, or public statements about launch schedules

Contracts:
- Kimi K3 released by…?: June 30 — 16¢ Polymarket $245 (weight 71%)
- Kimi K3 released by…?: May 31 — 9¢ Polymarket $101 (weight 29%)

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kimi-k3-released
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Kimi%20K3%20released%20by%E2%80%A6
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev