85% — Will Klarna Group plc report above 120 million Active Klarna Consumers in Q1 2026 Leader: above 120 million at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 14 contracts · $255 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 16:17:37 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether Klarna will report more than 120 million active consumers in Q1 2026, which would indicate continued user growth for the Swedish fintech platform. The 93% probability on the above-118 million threshold suggests market confidence that Klarna's user base has expanded, though traders assign only 62% probability to the higher 120 million bar. The gap between thresholds reflects uncertainty about the precise growth rate. Resolution depends on Klarna's official Q1 2026 earnings report or investor disclosure, expected within the typical corporate reporting window. Key drivers include Klarna's geographic expansion, retention rates among existing users, and competitive pressures in the buy-now-pay-later sector. Traders assign very low odds (4-11%) to substantially higher thresholds like 122 or 124 million, suggesting limited expectation of explosive growth beyond the mid-range outcomes. Key factors: - Klarna's official Q1 2026 Active Consumer count disclosure will be the sole resolution metric; any prior management guidance or analyst estimates cannot settle the question - The 31 percentage-point gap between the 118M (93¢) and 120M (62¢) contracts indicates meaningful disagreement on whether growth will reach that incremental threshold within one quarter - Historical consumer acquisition trends and churn rates in the buy-now-pay-later sector will determine baseline growth expectations relative to year-end 2025 levels - Klarna's regional performance—particularly in North America and Europe—directly impacts total active consumer figures and reflects both expansion success and market saturation dynamics - Trading volume ($816-$2,900 across contracts) suggests moderate but active pricing; the 122M and 124M contracts trading near single-digit cents indicate tail-scenario skepticism Contracts: - Will Klarna Group PLC report above 120 million active klarna consumers in Q2 2026?: above 120 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report Above 121 million active klarna consumers in Q3 2026?: Above 121 million — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report Above 122 million active klarna consumers in Q3 2026?: Above 122 million — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report above 121 million active klarna consumers in Q2 2026?: above 121 million — 63¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 24%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report Above 123 million active klarna consumers in Q3 2026?: Above 123 million — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report Above 124 million active klarna consumers in Q3 2026?: Above 124 million — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report above 122 million active klarna consumers in Q2 2026?: above 122 million — 35¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 48%) - Will Klarna Group PLC report above 123 million active klarna consumers in Q2 2026?: above 123 million — 28¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 28%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.660Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/klar Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Klarna%20Group%20plc%20report%20above%20120%20million%20Active%20Klarna%20Consumers%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev