11% — Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027 Kalshi 11% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 01:17:49 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Angie Craig has a 6% chance of being Minnesota's Class I Senator on February 1, 2027. The 2024 Senate race features multiple viable candidates competing for this seat. Craig's current low probability suggests markets view her as a longshot compared to other Democratic candidates, particularly Kelly Morrison who trades at 3¢. The probability will primarily shift based on primary election dynamics, polling trends, and the November 2024 general election results. The main resolution event is the 2024 Senate election in November, which will determine who holds the seat in early 2027. Market pricing reflects both historical electoral patterns in Minnesota and current candidate viability assessments. Key factors: - Minnesota Class I Senate seat is currently held by Amy Klobuchar (D); the seat was up for election in 2024 with multiple Democratic primary candidates competing - Kelly Morrison trades at significantly lower prices (3¢) than Craig (7¢), indicating market preference for Morrison as the Democratic nominee - Craig's 6% probability is roughly equivalent to betting against her compared to other candidates or the 'no one' outcome at 9¢ - Primary election outcomes and subsequent polling against Republican opponent(s) in the general election will be the primary driver of probability movement - Trading volume on Craig's contract ($137 in 24h) is notably lower than Morrison's ($591), suggesting less market interest or conviction in Craig-specific outcomes Contracts: - Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Angie Craig — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Amy Klobuchar be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Amy Klobuchar — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Erin Murphy be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Erin Murphy — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Keith Ellison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Keith Ellison — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Kelly Morrison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Kelly Morrison — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Melisa López Franzen be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Melisa López Franzen — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will No one be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: No one — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Steve Simon be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Steve Simon — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T00:20:50.809Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/klobseat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Angie%20Craig%20be%20United%20States%20Senator%20from%20Minnesota%2C%20Class%20I%20on%20Feb%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev