34% — Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?
Kalshi 34% · Polymarket 31% · 16 contracts · $1.8M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:29 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Kraken IPO by ___ ?: December 31, 2026 — 31¢ Polymarket $541K (weight 30%)
- Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? — 36¢ Kalshi $461K (weight 26%)
- Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? — 12¢ Kalshi $322K (weight 18%)
- Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jul 1, 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $299K (weight 17%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine? — 47¢ Kalshi $49K (weight 3%)
- Will Citigroup take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? — 44¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 2%)
- Will Goldman Sachs take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? — 29¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 1%)
- Will Morgan Stanley take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? — 46¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 1%)
- ... and 8 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:42:22.792Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kraken-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kraken%20IPO%20by%20end%20of%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev