47% — Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?
Kalshi 51% · Polymarket 38% · 14 contracts · $599K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:32 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 13pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Kraken IPO by ___ ?: December 31, 2026 — 17¢ Polymarket $558K (weight 93%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 20¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 2%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 82¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 1%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 85¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 1%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 80¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 1%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 96¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 1%)
- When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — 82¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 1%)
- When will Airtable officially announce an IPO? — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-26T06:41:30.840Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kraken-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kraken%20IPO%20by%20end%20of%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev