34% — Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków
Kalshi 34% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-24 03:48:42 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment of Aleksandra Owca's chances of winning Kraków's 2026 special mayoral election. At 21%, Owca is currently positioned as the third-most-likely candidate behind frontrunner Łukasz Gibała (56%) and Monika Piątkowska (20%). Her relatively low probability reflects limited market volume on her specific contract—only $0 in 24-hour trading activity—which suggests either low trader interest or strong consensus that other candidates are more viable. The main factors influencing this level are the perceived strength of competing candidates, particularly Gibała's substantial lead, and Owca's current public profile and electoral support within Kraków. The election date itself will serve as the critical catalyst, resolving all remaining uncertainty about which candidate ultimately prevails and determining whether Owca gains ground from current expectations.

Key factors:
- Łukasz Gibała holds a 56% market probability, indicating dominant position and likely splitting anti-incumbent or reform-minded votes among the other three candidates
- Market volume on Owca's contract is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting either low trader conviction or possible information gaps about her candidacy
- Owca's 21% probability falls between Piątkowska (20%) and Gibała (56%), positioning her as a secondary alternative in the three-candidate race
- No recent polling or campaign activity data is reflected in the contract prices, creating potential for significant repricing if new campaign developments emerge
- The election date and official candidate registration deadlines will be the primary events that either confirm or challenge current market expectations

Contracts:
- Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?: Łukasz Gibała — 82¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 99%)
- Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?: Monika Piątkowska — 11¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%)
- Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?: Michał Drewnicki — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-24T03:20:51.290Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/krakowmayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aleksandra%20Owca%20win%20the%202026%20special%20election%20for%20Mayor%20of%20Krak%C3%B3w
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev