52% — Will Sarah Preu be the Democratic nominee for KS-03
Kalshi 52% · 10 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 03:13:47 UTC

Why this matters:
Sarah Preu is currently assessed at 46% odds to become the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 3rd congressional district. This probability reflects significant uncertainty about the Democratic primary outcome in a competitive race. The current level suggests meaningful backing for Preu but also indicates substantial competition or concerns about her nomination prospects. Primary dynamics typically shift based on candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling data, and field composition changes. The nomination will be resolved on or shortly after the August 2026 primary election date, when Kansas voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for this House race. Until then, factors including campaign momentum, debate performance, voter outreach effectiveness, and potential candidate entry or withdrawal could materially move this probability.

Key factors:
- Sharice Davids, a Democrat incumbent, is priced at 92¢ suggesting she is the presumptive Democratic favorite for KS-03, which directly constrains Preu's probability
- The low trading volume ($140 24h) and thin market depth indicate limited liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals around the 46% assessment
- Kansas primary rules, early filing deadlines, and the timing of candidate announcements will determine the final field composition competing for the nomination
- Democratic primary voter preferences in KS-03, measurable through polling and early organizing data, will drive the eventual outcome
- The August 2026 primary election date represents the resolution point when nominee selection becomes deterministic

Contracts:
- Will Derek Schmidt be the Republican nominee for KS-02?: Derek Schmidt — 89¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)
- Will Colin McRoberts be the Democratic nominee for KS-01?: Colin McRoberts — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lauren Reinhold be the Democratic nominee for KS-01?: Lauren Reinhold — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Don Coover be the Democratic nominee for KS-02?: Don Coover — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chad Young be the Republican nominee for KS-02?: Chad Young — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chase LaPorte be the Republican nominee for KS-03?: Chase LaPorte — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Eric Jenkins be the Republican nominee for KS-03?: Eric Jenkins — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chris Carmichael be the Democratic nominee for KS-04?: Chris Carmichael — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T02:20:50.097Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ksprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sarah%20Preu%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20KS-03
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev