90% — KY-04 House Election Winner
Leader: Republican Party at 90% · Polymarket 90% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The leading candidate in Kentucky's 4th congressional district is priced at a 91% probability of winning, indicating strong market confidence in their victory. This level reflects expectations about candidate viability, recent polling trends, and historical voting patterns in the district. The probability could move lower if new polling shows a competitive race, higher-than-expected opponent fundraising, or significant shifts in district sentiment. The main catalyst remains Election Day in November 2026, when actual voter preference will resolve the outcome. Market participants are weighing incumbent strength, demographic composition of the district, and typical partisan lean when pricing this contract.

Key factors:
- Kentucky's 4th district voting history and partisan lean compared to statewide/national trends
- Candidate quality, fundraising, and campaign organization as of mid-2026
- Current public polling data from the district, if available, versus implied probability
- Turnout expectations for a midterm election year and demographic shifts
- Potential for unexpected events (candidate withdrawals, scandals, or significant endorsements) between now and November 2026 election

Contracts:
- KY-04 House Election Winner: Republican Party — 90¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- KY-04 House Election Winner: Democratic Party — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ky04-house-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=KY-04%20House%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev