91% — Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican nominee for KY-06
Kalshi 91% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 22:49:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Adam Perez Arquette will secure the Republican Party's nomination for Kentucky's 6th congressional district. The 61% probability reflects moderate confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether he faces significant primary opposition or encounters organizational obstacles. Key factors driving this level include the strength of alternative candidates in the district, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican leadership, and recent polling data from district-level surveys. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, market participants are pricing in a scenario where Arquette has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage, implying the nomination remains genuinely competitive.

Key factors:
- Recent polling data from KY-06 Republican primary showing Arquette's standing relative to named opponents and undecided voters
- Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Arquette versus primary challengers in the most recent FEC filing periods
- Endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican Party officials, state legislators, and national party figures
- Candidate field composition—whether other viable Republican candidates have formally entered or are actively campaigning
- Early voting or preference data from local party surveys or internal campaign polls that became public

Contracts:
- Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic nominee for KY-06?: Zach Dembo — 86¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 59%)
- Will Maria Rodriguez be the Republican nominee for KY-03?: Maria Rodriguez — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 41%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-21T01:20:48.891Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kyprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Adam%20Perez%20Arquette%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20KY-06
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev