35% — La Liga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Polymarket 35% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that specific La Liga clubs will be relegated by the end of the 2025-26 season. The current 29% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between markets: Kalshi prices it at just 4%, while Polymarket averages 30%, suggesting uncertainty about which clubs face genuine relegation risk. La Liga's competitive landscape and each team's current position in the standings would push this probability higher if mid-table clubs enter a sustained slump, or lower if traditional top-flight sides stabilize. The key catalyst is the final weeks of the season (typically ending in May/June), when mathematical certainty about which clubs drop to the second division becomes clear. Interim factors include upcoming fixture difficulty, injury situations among relegation-zone teams, and any significant management changes that could affect performance trajectories.

Key factors:
- Current league standings show which clubs occupy the bottom three positions and their point differential from safety
- Historical relegation patterns in La Liga indicate whether the current at-risk clubs match typical relegation profiles
- The 26-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on fundamental relegation risk assessment
- Remaining fixtures and schedule difficulty for bottom-placed teams will materially affect their ability to accumulate points
- Recent form trends (wins, losses, draws) for clubs near the relegation zone indicate whether trajectories are improving or deteriorating

Contracts:
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla — 19¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 72%)
- Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?: FC Heidenheim — 95¢ Polymarket $136 (weight 8%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca — 14¢ Polymarket $128 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia — 15¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 5%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés — 31¢ Polymarket $90 (weight 5%)
- Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?: St. Pauli — 33¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 3%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Oviedo — 94¢ Polymarket $13 (weight 1%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Espanyol — 5¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/la-liga-which-clubs-get-relegated
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=La%20Liga%20-%20Which%20Clubs%20Get%20Relegated
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev