94% — Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026
Leader: Before Sep 1, 2026 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 3 contracts · $213 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-13 17:08:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 94¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 14%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 77¢ Kalshi $183 (weight 86%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T22:20:12.755Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/laborannounce
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20issue%20any%20official%20announcement%20(e.g.%2C%20Truth%20Social%20post)%20on%20naming%20his%20nominee%20for%20Labor%20Secretary%20before%20May%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev