6% — Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026
Polymarket 6% · 1 contracts · $1 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:53:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 9% chance that Lai Ching-te will no longer serve as Taiwan's President before year-end 2026—roughly six months from now. Such an outcome would require extraordinary circumstances, as presidential removal in Taiwan is constitutionally difficult and typically requires impeachment by the legislature followed by conviction. The low probability reflects the significant political barriers to such action. The main factors influencing this estimate are the composition of Taiwan's legislature, the health and political stability of President Lai, and the possibility of unforeseen constitutional crises. The most immediate catalyst would be any major health incident affecting the president or a dramatic political shift in the Legislative Yuan that might alter impeachment dynamics. Currently, Lai's Democratic Progressive Party holds a legislative plurality, making removal highly unlikely absent extraordinary events.

Key factors:
- Taiwan's Legislative Yuan would need to initiate impeachment and achieve the required supermajority to convict and remove a sitting president, a constitutionally demanding process
- No major health incidents, constitutional crises, or political scandals involving President Lai have been reported as of mid-2026
- The Democratic Progressive Party's legislative position affects the practical likelihood of any removal effort succeeding
- Taiwan's political system has never successfully removed a sitting president through impeachment since democratization in the 1990s
- The six-month timeframe to year-end 2026 limits the window for political developments that could trigger presidential succession

Contracts:
- Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? — 6¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lai-chingte-out-as-president-of-taiwan-december-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Lai%20Ching-te%20out%20as%20President%20of%20Taiwan%20by%20December%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev