27% — Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z
Leader: Before January 1, 2028 at 27% · Kalshi 27% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:53:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 17% likelihood that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will leave office involuntarily before July 1, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects expectations that Lai will serve his full term absent major unforeseen events. Key drivers of this estimate include Taiwan's political stability, Lai's health and personal circumstances, and the absence of imminent constitutional threats. The probability could move significantly if health issues emerge, major political upheaval occurs, or cross-strait tensions escalate dramatically. The most concrete near-term indicators would be Lai's public health status, parliamentary developments, and any statements from major political opposition figures regarding potential impeachment or recall mechanisms. Resolution depends ultimately on whether Lai remains in office through the specified date.

Key factors:
- Lai Ching-te's current health status and any public medical disclosures or incidents between now and July 2027
- Taiwan's domestic political stability and any serious parliamentary or opposition movements toward impeachment or recall procedures
- Cross-strait military or diplomatic escalation that could create constitutional crises or emergency conditions
- The strength and unity of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party coalition in maintaining executive continuity
- Any major corruption scandals or personal crises that could force resignation or create institutional pressure for removal

Contracts:
- Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2028-01-01T15:00:00.000Z?: Before January 1, 2028 — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before July 1, 2027 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:51.093Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/laiout-lchi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lai%20Ching-te%20leave%20office%20before%202027-07-01T14%3A00%3A00.000Z
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev