42% — LaLiga
Kalshi 7% · Polymarket 46% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:26 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 39pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
This 49% probability represents the market's assessment of a specific LaLiga outcome based on aggregated contract prices across 17 linked markets. The current leader trades just slightly ahead of the runner-up, indicating genuine uncertainty about the resolution. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in player performance data, team standings, or relevant regulatory announcements—with the most volatility expected around scheduled fixture dates and official LaLiga communications. The lack of a clear consensus reflects either balanced competing outcomes or incomplete information among market participants. Resolution depends on which specific LaLiga event the leading contract measures; the varied secondary contracts suggest multiple dimensions of the 2025-26 season are being priced simultaneously.

Key factors:
- Current leader holds only 1-percentage-point advantage over runner-up, indicating genuine competition between outcomes rather than dominant consensus
- Top-volume contracts span multiple LaLiga dimensions (relegation, goal-scoring races, Champions League qualification) rather than concentrating on a single outcome
- Mbappe top-goalscorer contract trades at 89¢ while another top-scorer option (Muriqi) trades at 12¢, suggesting concentrated confidence in one player but uncertainty across the field
- Polymarket volume ranges from $128 to $1301 in 24-hour trading, indicating inconsistent participant engagement across related outcomes
- Runner-up position at 48% means less than 2% swing in aggregate prices would reverse the current leader

Contracts:
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla — 19¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 43%)
- Will Real Madrid win the La Liga?: Real Madrid — 7¢ Kalshi $807 (weight 27%)
- LALIGA:  Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe — 91¢ Polymarket $405 (weight 13%)
- LaLiga: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis — 97¢ Polymarket $144 (weight 5%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca — 14¢ Polymarket $128 (weight 4%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia — 15¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 3%)
- LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés — 31¢ Polymarket $90 (weight 3%)
- LaLiga: Most Assists: Lamine Yamal — 44¢ Polymarket $18 (weight 1%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/laliga
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=LaLiga
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev