41% — LaLiga
Kalshi 41% · 2 contracts · $20 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 00:18:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 49% probability represents the market's assessment of a specific LaLiga outcome based on aggregated contract prices across 17 linked markets. The current leader trades just slightly ahead of the runner-up, indicating genuine uncertainty about the resolution. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in player performance data, team standings, or relevant regulatory announcements—with the most volatility expected around scheduled fixture dates and official LaLiga communications. The lack of a clear consensus reflects either balanced competing outcomes or incomplete information among market participants. Resolution depends on which specific LaLiga event the leading contract measures; the varied secondary contracts suggest multiple dimensions of the 2025-26 season are being priced simultaneously.

Key factors:
- Current leader holds only 1-percentage-point advantage over runner-up, indicating genuine competition between outcomes rather than dominant consensus
- Top-volume contracts span multiple LaLiga dimensions (relegation, goal-scoring races, Champions League qualification) rather than concentrating on a single outcome
- Mbappe top-goalscorer contract trades at 89¢ while another top-scorer option (Muriqi) trades at 12¢, suggesting concentrated confidence in one player but uncertainty across the field
- Polymarket volume ranges from $128 to $1301 in 24-hour trading, indicating inconsistent participant engagement across related outcomes
- Runner-up position at 48% means less than 2% swing in aggregate prices would reverse the current leader

Contracts:
- Will Real Madrid win La Liga?: Real Madrid — 37¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%)
- Will Barcelona win La Liga?: Barcelona — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T23:20:49.777Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/laliga
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=LaLiga
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev