51% — LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Deportivo Alaves at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 15 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Deportivo Alavés will finish 17th in La Liga and avoid automatic relegation, with a narrow edge over Celta Vigo at 49%. The outcome depends primarily on remaining match results and goal differential among the bottom clubs—teams currently in or near the relegation zone will strengthen their position with wins, while defeats increase their relegation risk. The resolution occurs at the end of the 2025–26 La Liga season (typically mid-June 2026), when final standings become official. Until then, each round of matches will move probabilities as the points gap between Alavés and its competitors tightens or widens.

Key factors:
- Deportivo Alavés' remaining fixture difficulty and head-to-head records against other bottom-six competitors will directly affect survival odds
- Current points total and goal differential between Alavés, Celta Vigo, and other relegation-contending teams as of late May 2026
- Match results in the final 3–4 rounds of the season (late May through mid-June 2026) determine which team lands in 17th place vs. 18th/19th (automatic relegation)
- Injury status and squad depth of Alavés' key players, which influence consistency in crucial final matches
- Historical win rates and defensive records of Alavés vs. competing teams in similar pressure situations

Contracts:
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Deportivo Alaves — 51¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Mallorca — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Valencia — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Sevilla — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Espanyol — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Levante — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Real Oviedo — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Athletic Bilbao — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 7 more

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/laliga-17th-place-relegation-survivor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=LALIGA%3A%2017th%20Place%20(Relegation%20Survivor)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev