65% — Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
Kalshi 65% · 3 contracts · $45K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:35:03 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Spencer Pratt qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?: Spencer Pratt — 70¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 45%)
- Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?: Karen Bass — 91¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 36%)
- Will Nithya Raman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?: Nithya Raman — 35¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 19%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.473Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lamayoradvance
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Karen%20Bass%20qualify%20for%20the%20runoff%20in%20the%202026%20Los%20Angeles%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev