48% — Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4% Leader: Karen Bass, ≥2% at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 10 contracts · $73 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 09:06:36 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin exceeding 4 percentage points. At 53%, traders view this outcome as slightly more likely than not, but substantial uncertainty remains. Bass's viability as the likely frontrunner is evident in her 53-cent contract (winning by 2%+), yet the tighter 4-point threshold shows traders are pricing in meaningful competition that could narrow her advantage. The outcome depends on her incumbent strength, challenger consolidation—particularly between Nithya Raman and other candidates—and voter turnout patterns. The 2026 election itself serves as the resolution event; no interim primary or polling threshold triggers a change before then. Kalshi trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited liquidity and the potential for sentiment shifts as the election approaches and candidates' campaigns develop. Key factors: - Karen Bass's incumbent advantage and approval rating as sitting mayor versus any primary or general election headwinds - Whether challenger support fragments among multiple candidates or consolidates behind one opponent, materially affecting Bass's final margin - Historical Los Angeles mayoral election margins and turnout demographics to establish whether 4-point victories are typical or exceptional for sitting mayors - The timing and results of any polls or endorsements released before election day that shift voter perception of Bass's strength - Public financing levels and campaign spending disparity between Bass and her strongest challenger, which influences campaign reach and mobilization Contracts: - Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 2%?: Karen Bass, ≥2% — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%?: Karen Bass, ≥4% — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 6%?: Karen Bass, ≥6% — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 2%?: Nithya Raman, ≥2% — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 8%?: Karen Bass, ≥8% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 10%?: Karen Bass, ≥10% — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%?: Nithya Raman, ≥4% — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 6%?: Nithya Raman, ≥6% — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.318Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lamov Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Karen%20Bass%20in%20the%202026%20Los%20Angeles%20mayoral%20election%20be%20above%204%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev