97% — Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027
Leader: At least 50% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:19:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the likelihood that at least one large language model will achieve 60% or higher on Humanity's Last Exam by the end of 2027. The 89% probability suggests significant market confidence in near-term progress, though the contract ladder—where 70%, 75%, and 80% thresholds trade substantially lower—indicates uncertainty about how far performance will advance. The main drivers are current LLM capability trajectories and the specific difficulty of Humanity's Last Exam, which tests reasoning across humanities, sciences, and mathematics. Key upward pressure comes from demonstrated quarterly improvements in state-of-the-art models; downward pressure would stem from plateauing performance or test design that proves resistant to current training approaches. Resolution depends on actual benchmark results when major labs publish scores against this exam before year-end 2027.

Key factors:
- Current leading LLM models are already scoring in the 50-60% range on similar benchmarks, making a 60% threshold plausible within 18 months
- The step-down from 60% (89¢) to 70% (69¢) suggests markets expect meaningful but not exponential gains over the period
- The exam's specific domain coverage and design methodology will significantly affect achievability—different test designs may have different inherent ceiling effects for current architectures
- Major model releases and benchmark publications scheduled before December 2027 will be primary resolution drivers
- The contract implies roughly 11% probability that no model reaches 60% despite rapid historical improvement rates, suggesting non-trivial concerns about performance saturation or fundamental architectural limits

Contracts:
- Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?: At least 50% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?: At least 55% — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?: At least 60% — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?: At least 65% — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?: At least 70% — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?: At least 60% — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?: At least 75% — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?: At least 80% — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T04:20:51.758Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lastexam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20LLM%20score%20at%20least%2060%25%20on%20Humanity's%20Last%20Exam%20before%20Dec%2031%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev