96% — How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026
Leader: Above 12 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 7 contracts · $125 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing in a 91% probability that U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers will exceed 11 launches during July 2026. This represents a high confidence that the industry will maintain or accelerate launch activity during the month. The probability reflects historical launch cadence data and scheduled missions known to operators, though the range of outcomes—from 12 to 16+ launches—shows material uncertainty about whether providers will hit higher thresholds. Launch schedules depend on weather delays, technical readiness, and customer demand timing. The resolution occurs on August 1, 2026, when actual July launch count becomes known. Between now and then, schedule announcements or delays from major providers like SpaceX, Axiom, and Relativity would be the primary drivers shifting market pricing.

Key factors:
- Historical monthly launch rates for U.S. commercial operators and whether they sustain or increase from recent monthly averages
- Publicly announced launch schedules for July 2026 from major providers and any schedule slip notifications issued before month-end
- Weather and technical readiness patterns typical for Florida, Texas, and California launch sites during summer months
- The definition of 'U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider' and whether suborbital or orbital flights count toward the total
- Actual launch attempt and success/failure resolution data released publicly or via FAA tracking after July 31, 2026

Contracts:
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 12 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 13 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 14 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 15 — 85¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 19%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 16 — 57¢ Kalshi $63 (weight 51%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 17 — 39¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 30%)
- How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 18 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:49.425Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/launchcountm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20launches%20will%20all%20U.S.-licensed%20commercial%20launch%20providers%20cumulatively%20have%20in%20Jul%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev