96% — How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026 Leader: Above 13 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 8 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:10 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: The market indicates 87% confidence that U.S.-licensed commercial operators will conduct more than 13 orbital launches during July 2026. This reflects expectations about near-term launch cadence from providers including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others operating under U.S. licenses. The probability is driven by historical launch rates and current manifest visibility, weighted against potential delays from technical issues, weather, or regulatory holds. Resolution depends on final July 2026 launch counts, which will be confirmed through official FAA records and company announcements. The wide spread in contract prices—from 5¢ for above-20 launches to 87¢ for above-13—suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether activity clusters at 14-16 launches or extends above 19, hinging on how many operators execute their scheduled missions without slip. Key factors: - Historical U.S. commercial launch cadence in recent months, which sets baseline expectations for July activity - Current published manifests and scheduled launch windows for SpaceX, Blue Origin, Relativity, and other licensed operators during July 2026 - Weather patterns, technical delays, and regulatory clearance timelines that could compress or expand the achievable launch window - The gap between 13 and 19 launches in contract pricing suggests market uncertainty about mid-range outcomes (14-18 launches) - Whether operators maintain aggressive scheduling or absorb delays from prior months into the July window Contracts: - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 13 — 96¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 2%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 14 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 15 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 16 — 53¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 9%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 17 — 41¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 22%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 18 — 23¢ Kalshi $904 (weight 67%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 19 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above 20 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:48.701Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/launches Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20launches%20will%20all%20U.S.-licensed%20commercial%20operators%20combined%20have%20in%20July%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev