6% — Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 6% · 15 contracts · $469 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 15:25:27 UTC Why this matters: This 4% probability represents the likelihood that Trea Turner finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average among all players. Turner's low odds reflect the competitive nature of the batting title race, where dozens of qualified hitters compete for statistical supremacy each season. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: Turner's historical performance and consistency relative to other elite contact hitters, and real-time batting average data accumulating through the season's remaining games. The batting title will be determined by final statistical records published after the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, at which point the outcome becomes definitive. Turner would need to both maintain an exceptionally high average and perform better than other top hitters down the stretch to claim the title. Key factors: - Turner's 2026 season-to-date batting average compared to league leaders as of July 4 - Minimum plate appearance thresholds required for batting title eligibility and whether Turner meets them - Historical volatility in batting average leaders over final months—whether lead changes hands frequently or remains stable - Injury status of Turner and competing elite contact hitters—availability directly impacts their final statistics - Comparative performance trajectories of Ronald Acuña Jr., Alec Bohm, and other players priced higher in related contracts Contracts: - Will Gabriel Moreno lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Gabriel Moreno — 4¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 52%) - Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Chandler Simpson — 4¢ Kalshi $170 (weight 36%) - Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Otto Lopez — 11¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 7%) - Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez — 30¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 5%) - Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Ronald Acuña Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alec Bohm — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alec Burleson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alec Burleson — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alejandro Kirk lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alejandro Kirk — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:49.652Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbavg Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trea%20Turner%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20batting%20average%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev