5% — Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 5% · 20 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether Aaron Judge will record more doubles than any other Major League Baseball player during the 2026 regular season. At 5%, the market assigns this a low probability, reflecting Judge's inconsistent track record as a doubles leader despite his offensive output. Judge leads the majors in home runs most seasons, but doubles depend on different batting approaches and opportunity—players who hit for contact and run regularly often lead in this category. The market appears to favor specialists like Freddie Freeman (4%) and Taylor Ward (5%) who accumulate doubles through consistent play and base-running. Resolution will depend on Judge's playing time, batting approach, and how the double totals compare across the league when the regular season concludes in October 2026. Key factors: - Aaron Judge's historical doubles production: Judge has never led MLB in doubles, typically ranking 50th-100th annually despite 2000+ plate appearances per season - Freeman and Ward's market positioning: Both are priced similarly or lower than Judge despite market data suggesting contact hitters tend to lead doubles categories more frequently - Playing time and health: Judge's likelihood of playing 150+ games at the age of 34-35 directly impacts whether he can accumulate sufficient doubles to compete for the league lead - Doubles leader typical volume: MLB doubles leaders typically accumulate 50-53 doubles annually; Judge would need sustained high-frequency doubles production outside his normal home-run-focused approach - Comparable competitor track records: Freddie Freeman has periodically ranked in top-10 for doubles; Taylor Ward led AL in doubles in 2023 with 52, establishing recent production capability Contracts: - Will Jackson Chourio lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Jackson Chourio — 7¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 100%) - Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Freddie Freeman — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.167Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbdoubles Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Judge%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20doubles%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev