8% — Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 8% · 14 contracts · $208 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:18:44 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the 8% chance that Yoshinobu Yamamoto finishes the 2026 Major League Baseball season with the lowest earned run average among all qualifying pitchers. The market assessment reflects that Yamamoto faces significant competition from other elite arms, particularly Jacob Misiorowski (priced at 44¢), Shohei Ohtani (11¢), and younger emerging talents. ERA leadership depends on both Yamamoto's individual performance and injury avoidance through a full season, as well as whether competing pitchers maintain or exceed current performance levels. The outcome will be determined when MLB releases final 2026 regular season statistics in early October, with the resolution depending on which pitcher achieves the lowest ERA among those meeting the minimum innings pitched requirement (typically 50 innings for seasonal ERA titles in some contexts, though MLB ERA champions are determined by lowest ERA among qualified pitchers). Key factors: - Yamamoto's age (28 in 2026) and recent performance trajectory relative to younger competitors like Misiorowski and established peers like Ohtani - Durability and injury history—ERA leadership requires pitching deep into the season without significant time on the injured list - Competitive field strength—the market prices multiple pitchers substantially higher, indicating deeper perceived advantages in their 2026 positioning - Qualifying innings requirement—Yamamoto must accumulate sufficient innings pitched to be eligible for ERA title consideration - Performance regression or improvement trends visible through mid-season data points that would inform late-season probability adjustments Contracts: - Will Jacob Misiorowski lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob Misiorowski — 49¢ Kalshi $133 (weight 64%) - Will Cristopher Sánchez lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Cristopher Sánchez — 5¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 27%) - Will Paul Skenes lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Paul Skenes — 3¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 9%) - Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dylan Cease lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Dylan Cease — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Woo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Chris Sale — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jacob deGrom lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob deGrom — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:48.894Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbera Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Yoshinobu%20Yamamoto%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20earned%20run%20average%20(ERA)%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev