15% — Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $520 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 08:06:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates a 14% chance that Pete Alonso finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more home runs than any other player. The market shows relatively modest confidence in Alonso leading baseball in home runs, with related contracts indicating he's viewed as a mid-tier contender for the title. Uncertainty around Alonso's HR leadership stems from his age and health trajectory, alongside the presence of elite competitors like Munetaka Murakami (17% implied probability), Yordan Alvarez (10%), and others. The resolution occurs at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when final home run totals are tallied. Key drivers of this probability include Alonso's seasonal performance trends, his team's lineup construction and playing time decisions, and the pace-of-play set by leading competitors mid-season.

Key factors:
- Pete Alonso's career home run rate and durability through a full 2026 season
- Competition from other elite home run hitters, particularly Murakami at 17% implied probability
- Contract indicating Alonso has 61% probability of hitting 30+ home runs, suggesting market expects production but not necessarily league-leading
- Number of games played and at-bats Alonso accumulates relative to competing players
- Changes in home run environment factors such as ball specifications, ballpark dimensions, or offensive talent distribution in 2026

Contracts:
- Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez — 24¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 38%)
- Will James Wood lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: James Wood — 3¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 24%)
- Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Schwarber — 44¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 23%)
- Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero — 10¢ Kalshi $73 (weight 14%)
- Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.365Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbhr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Pete%20Alonso%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20home%20runs%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev