14% — Will Garrett Crochet lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 14% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 08:01:14 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 5% probability that Garrett Crochet will lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts during the 2026 regular season. Crochet would need to accumulate the most strikeouts among all pitchers over the full season, competing against established aces and potential breakout performers. The low probability reflects that while Crochet is a talented young pitcher for the White Sox, leading the league in strikeouts requires sustained excellence, durability, and outperforming numerous other elite pitchers across 162 games. Key variables include Crochet's innings pitched total, whether he remains healthy throughout the season, and the strikeout rates of competitors. The outcome will be determined at the end of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when official statistics are finalized. Relative to other individual statistical leaders (like Mike Trout at 3% for home runs), this probability suggests moderate skepticism about Crochet winning the category. Key factors: - Crochet's career innings pitched average and injury history relative to 2026 availability - Strikeout rate trend: whether Crochet maintains or improves upon his recent K/9 performance - Competitive field: number and caliber of other elite pitchers expected to log significant innings in 2026 - White Sox team success and rotation usage: whether the team remains competitive enough to give Crochet deep playoff positioning and full regular season starts - MLB-wide strikeout environment: whether the 2026 season favors high-velocity pitchers or produces league-wide strikeout inflation Contracts: - Will Dylan Cease lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Dylan Cease — 14¢ Kalshi $834 (weight 54%) - Will Jacob Misiorowski lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob Misiorowski — 63¢ Kalshi $498 (weight 32%) - Will Cristopher Sánchez lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Cristopher Sánchez — 10¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 14%) - Will Chase Burns lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Chase Burns — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Chris Sale — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Joe Ryan lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Joe Ryan — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Paul Skenes lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Paul Skenes — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tarik Skubal lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season?: Tarik Skubal — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:48.754Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbks Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Garrett%20Crochet%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20strikeouts%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev