5% — Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 5% · 18 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 00:17:42 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Brent Rooker will finish the 2026 regular season with the highest OPS in Major League Baseball. At 7%, the market views this as unlikely but possible. Rooker's probability is substantially lower than Aaron Judge's (51%), reflecting Judge's established track record and higher profile. The key drivers are Rooker's historical offensive consistency, his age and development trajectory, and comparisons to other elite offensive players in baseball. The resolution will occur automatically when the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, when final statistics are compiled. Between now and then, Rooker's month-to-month offensive performance and injuries to other top contenders will move this probability. Key factors: - Rooker's career OPS through May 2026 compared to historical leaders like Judge, Murakami, and Alvarez in similar timeframes - Rooker's plate discipline metrics (strikeout rate, walk rate) relative to other high-OPS performers in the league - Injury status of competing players, particularly Judge (51% contract), who currently leads the OPS markets - Year-over-year improvement or decline in Rooker's slugging percentage and on-base percentage trend - Full-season availability: Rooker's games played projection versus other candidates over the remaining ~150 games Contracts: - Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Austin Riley — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Ben Rice — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Corbin Carroll — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season?: Corey Seager — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-23T23:20:50.290Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbops Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brent%20Rooker%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20OPS%20(On-base%20Plus%20Slugging)%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev