4% — Will Jeremy Peña lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 4% · 17 contracts · $233 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:26 UTC Why this matters: This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Jeremy Peña will accumulate more runs than any other MLB player during the 2026 regular season. The low probability stems from Peña competing against established offensive leaders like Shohei Ohtani (13% implied probability) and emerging talent like James Wood (51%), who have superior track records of run production or greater offensive upside. Run leaders are typically determined by a combination of batting average, power, speed, and lineup position—factors where Peña has not consistently ranked among baseball's elite. The 2026 regular season concludes in early October, when final statistics will definitively show which player led the league in runs. Peña would need sustained elite offensive performance throughout 162 games while other top hitters underperform their historical averages. Key factors: - Ohtani, who holds the 13% probability, is the top-favored candidate and has historically produced at a higher run-scoring rate than Peña across multiple seasons - James Wood at 51% probability suggests the market views him as significantly more likely to lead the league, implying questions about Peña's offensive consistency relative to younger alternatives - Run totals typically range from 100-130 for league leaders, requiring both high batting average and favorable team dynamics; Peña ranked outside the top 20 in runs in recent seasons - Peña's run production depends heavily on lineup protection and teammates' RBI rates; any injuries to core Astros hitters or roster changes could impact his opportunities - The resolution date is October 2026 when final MLB statistics are published; mid-season performance by July-September will indicate whether Peña remains a viable candidate Contracts: - Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani — 6¢ Kalshi $233 (weight 100%) - Will Alex Bregman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Alex Bregman — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Austin Riley — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Adley Rutschman — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Bo Bichette — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bryan Reynolds lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Reynolds — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.100Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbruns Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jeremy%20Pe%C3%B1a%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20runs%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev