11% — Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 11% · 6 contracts · $126 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-30 03:24:47 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects the 7% probability that José Ramírez will record the most stolen bases across all MLB players during the 2026 regular season. Ramírez is a talented infielder, but historically, stolen base leaders tend to come from players with both speed and high plate appearances—factors that vary significantly year to year. The probability is influenced by his past performance relative to other base-stealing threats in the league, injuries that could limit playing time, and how frequently his team employs aggressive base-running strategies. The resolution will depend on complete 2026 regular season statistics compiled by MLB, which typically conclude in early October. Changes to this probability would likely come from spring training performance reports or significant roster moves affecting elite speedsters. Key factors: - Ramírez's historical stolen base totals and rank among MLB leaders in recent seasons - Availability and performance of other known base-stealing threats (Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge's teammates, etc.) throughout 2026 - Ramírez's plate appearance rate and at-bat volume, which directly correlates with steal opportunities - Team offensive strategy and coaching decisions regarding aggressive baserunning in 2026 - Injury status entering and during the 2026 regular season, which would impact games played and steal opportunities Contracts: - Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Jazz Chisholm Jr. — 4¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 67%) - Will Nasim Nuñez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Nasim Nuñez — 29¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 33%) - Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr. — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Chandler Simpson — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Hyeseong Kim lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Hyeseong Kim — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-30T03:20:49.330Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbsteals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jos%C3%A9%20Ram%C3%ADrez%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20steals%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev