15% — Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 15% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 11:03:14 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses the likelihood that José Ramírez finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the most stolen bases league-wide. At 20%, the probability reflects that Ramírez faces competition from faster, more aggressive base-stealers like Bobby Witt Jr. (26%), who has shown higher volume and success rates in recent seasons. Ramírez's stolen base total depends on his playing time, injury status, and the team's strategic approach to running. The main driver of this probability is comparative speed and aggressive baserunning tendencies among elite players; Witt Jr.'s market price suggests stronger consensus he'll lead the category. The probability will stabilize as the regular season progresses and actual steal totals emerge, with late-season performance and injuries being the primary sources of uncertainty. Ramírez would need both consistent playing time and elevated run-stealing attempts to surpass the field. Key factors: - Ramírez's career stolen base rate and 2025 performance relative to Bobby Witt Jr. and other top competitors in the category - Team strategic philosophy: whether Cleveland emphasizes aggressive baserunning or a more conservative approach in 2026 - Playing time and injury risk for Ramírez compared to younger, faster competitors throughout the full 162-game season - The concentration of stolen base leader probability among Bobby Witt Jr. (26%), Nasim Nuñez (45%), and others suggests no clear favorite dominates expectations - Seasonal pace and competitive landscape: whether any elite basestealer emerges as statistically dominant early in the 2026 season Contracts: - Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Jazz Chisholm Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $722 (weight 44%) - Will Nasim Nuñez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Nasim Nuñez — 72¢ Kalshi $596 (weight 37%) - Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Chandler Simpson — 10¢ Kalshi $293 (weight 18%) - Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 1%) - Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Hyeseong Kim lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Hyeseong Kim — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:50.479Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbsteals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jos%C3%A9%20Ram%C3%ADrez%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20steals%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev