12% — Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $922 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 04:15:55 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts a 8% chance that Corey Seager finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) among all players. WAR combines offensive and defensive contributions into a single metric, making it broader than single-category leaders like home runs or ERA. The low probability reflects that Seager faces competition from perennial elite performers across multiple positions and specialties. Historical patterns show WAR leaders typically come from among a small group of consistently dominant hitters and pitchers. The market's 8% assessment suggests Seager is viewed as a solid player but not among the consensus top-tier candidates for this award. Resolution will occur after the regular season ends in early October 2026, when official statistics and WAR calculations are finalized. Key factors: - Seager's age (36 in 2026) and historical injury frequency compared to younger elite competitors - His defensive positioning (shortstop) versus designated hitters or elite pitchers who typically accumulate higher WAR totals - Season-to-date and career WAR trajectory relative to other eligible players through May 2026 - Whether Seager maintains 2024-2025 performance levels or experiences age-related decline in 2026 - Availability of related contracts for home run or OPS leaders showing market confidence in specific competitors over Seager Contracts: - Will Pete Crow-Armstrong lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Pete Crow-Armstrong — 32¢ Kalshi $818 (weight 89%) - Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani — 46¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 11%) - Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Brice Turang — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Cody Bellinger — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Rodon lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Carlos Rodon — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cristopher Sanchez lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Cristopher Sanchez — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season?: Corey Seager — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.867Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbwar Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Corey%20Seager%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20WAR%20(Wins%20Above%20Replacement)%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev