7% — Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 7% · 9 contracts · $456 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether Chris Sale will record the most wins by any pitcher in Major League Baseball during the 2026 regular season. The 5% probability reflects skepticism about Sale leading the league in a category determined by both pitching performance and team wins. Sale's health status and pitch availability are primary factors; he has experienced significant injuries in recent years that would need to remain resolved. Competition from other elite starters like Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes also matters, as does his team's offensive support. The outcome will be largely determined by Sale's durability through the full season and where he ranks among the league's most consistent winners by September 2026. Key factors: - Sale's injury history and durability; he has missed substantial time due to various injuries and would need to stay healthy and active throughout the 162-game season - Win totals typically range 18-24 for league leaders, requiring both strong pitching performance and team success; Sale's team would need consistent run support - Competition from multiple other elite starting pitchers who are also positioned to accumulate significant wins - Starts pitched matters; leading in wins often requires 30+ starts in a season, making availability and innings pitched critical thresholds - League-wide ERA leaders do not always lead in wins; the relationship between individual pitching dominance and team victories is imperfect Contracts: - Will Jacob Misiorowski lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob Misiorowski — 11¢ Kalshi $302 (weight 66%) - Will Cam Schlittler lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cam Schlittler — 6¢ Kalshi $115 (weight 25%) - Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 13¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 5%) - Will Cristopher Sánchez lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cristopher Sánchez — 7¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 2%) - Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Chris Sale — 11¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%) - Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Woo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Framber Valdez lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Framber Valdez — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will George Kirby lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: George Kirby — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.589Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadermlbwins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chris%20Sale%20lead%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20wins%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev