7% — Will Christian Gonzalez lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 6% probability that Christian Gonzalez finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more interceptions than any other defensive player. The low probability reflects that leading the league in interceptions is extremely difficult, requiring both exceptional coverage skills and favorable opportunity distribution. Factors driving this low estimate include the depth of elite defensive backs in the NFL and Gonzalez's historical interception rates. The probability would move primarily based on: (1) how many interceptions Gonzalez records in preseason and early regular season games (setting baseline performance expectations), and (2) injury status and performance of other elite cornerbacks and safeties competing for the league lead. The 2026-2027 regular season begins in September 2026, at which point actual weekly performance data will rapidly resolve uncertainty about whether Gonzalez can outpace competitors over the 17-game season.

Key factors:
- Gonzalez's career interception rate through his first five seasons relative to league-leading defensive backs
- The competitive strength of other elite NFL defenders expected to play in 2026-2027, particularly high-volume safeties and cornerbacks
- Gonzalez's team's defensive scheme and blitz packages, which affect opportunities for interceptions versus other defensive plays
- Injury status of top defensive back competitors entering the 2026-2027 season
- Whether Gonzalez maintains or improves his 2025-2026 interception total during the 2026-2027 regular season

Contracts:
- Will Kevin Byard III lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Kevin Byard III — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Xavier Watts lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Xavier Watts — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Marlon Humphrey lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Marlon Humphrey — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Pat Surtain II lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Pat Surtain II — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Trent McDuffie lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Trent McDuffie — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Sauce Gardner lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Sauce Gardner — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will A.J. Terrell Jr. lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: A.J. Terrell Jr. — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Derek Stingley Jr. lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Derek Stingley Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:01.243Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflint
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Christian%20Gonzalez%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Interceptions%20for%20the%202026-2027%20Regular%20Season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev