7% — Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season Kalshi 7% · 9 contracts · $931 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 07:08:18 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether Drake Maye will have the most passing touchdowns across the entire NFL during the 2026-2027 regular season. At 6%, the market assigns Drake Maye roughly similar odds to Caleb Williams (6%) but lower than Jared Goff (7%) and significantly lower than established veterans like Matthew Stafford (9%). The low probability reflects that Maye, entering his second NFL season, would need to substantially outperform both established franchise quarterbacks and other young elite passers to lead the league. Leading the NFL in passing touchdowns typically requires both elite offensive weapons and exceptional individual performance sustained over 17 games. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season statistics from the NFL's 2026-2027 season, which concludes in early January 2027. Upward pressure on this contract would come from Maye demonstrating elite passing efficiency in early season games, while downward pressure would result from competing quarterbacks accumulating touchdowns at a faster pace. Key factors: - Drake Maye's offensive line stability and receiver talent in 2026 compared to other top QB rosters - Whether Maye's rushing touchdown volume cannibalizes passing TD opportunities versus pure pocket passers - Early-season performance trends showing whether Maye is on pace to materially exceed historical TD leaders - Injury status of other high-volume passing QBs, particularly Goff, Stafford, and Williams through the 17-game season - Play-calling philosophy of New England's offensive coordinator and whether the system emphasizes volume passing attempts Contracts: - Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Matthew Stafford — 6¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 41%) - Will Trevor Lawrence lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Trevor Lawrence — 7¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 16%) - Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Dak Prescott — 7¢ Kalshi $132 (weight 14%) - Will Jared Goff lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Jared Goff — 13¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 11%) - Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Josh Allen — 3¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 9%) - Will Caleb Williams lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Caleb Williams — 10¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 6%) - Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Joe Burrow — 11¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 3%) - Will Justin Herbert lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Justin Herbert — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T05:20:49.623Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflptds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20Maye%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Passing%20Touchdowns%20for%20the%202026-2027%20Regular%20Season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev