6% — Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season Kalshi 6% · 13 contracts · $597 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 05:13:33 UTC Why this matters: This market asks whether Drake Maye will record more passing touchdowns than any other NFL player during the 2026-2027 regular season. The 34% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, suggesting roughly 2-to-1 odds against him leading the league. Maye's ability to claim this title depends primarily on his team's offensive scheme and his own health and consistency over a full 17-game season. The main downward pressure on this probability stems from competition from established elite quarterbacks and the unpredictability of individual statistical achievements across the entire league. Resolution will occur following the final game of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season in early January 2027, when official passing touchdown totals become final and verifiable. Until then, performance through the first half of the season (around mid-November 2026) will likely shift market sentiment significantly, as early leader status tends to correlate with full-season outcomes. Key factors: - Maye's actual touchdown pass rate through the first 8-9 games of the 2026 season, compared to other starting quarterbacks - The Houston Texans' offensive play-calling philosophy and usage patterns for pass attempts versus run plays - Injury status of Maye and other top-tier quarterback competitors during the regular season - Competition from at least 10-15 other capable NFL starting quarterbacks with similar statistical opportunities - End-of-season passing touchdown totals for the statistical leader and next closest competitors, which determine the winner Contracts: - Will Brock Purdy lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Brock Purdy — 5¢ Kalshi $578 (weight 97%) - Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Matthew Stafford — 9¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 3%) - Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Joe Burrow — 14¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Baker Mayfield lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Baker Mayfield — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Bo Nix — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cam Ward lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Cam Ward — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Caleb Williams lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Caleb Williams — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Drake Maye — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T04:20:48.808Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflptds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20Maye%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Passing%20Touchdowns%20for%20the%202026-2027%20Regular%20Season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev