4% — Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season Kalshi 4% · 10 contracts · $983 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:45 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 6% chance that Dak Prescott finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more passing yards than all other quarterbacks. The probability reflects that while Prescott has been a productive passer throughout his career, leading the league in passing yards requires both exceptional individual performance and circumstantial factors like game script and team offensive volume. The metric will be determined by final regular season statistics released in early 2027. Prescott's probability compares closely to Joe Burrow at 7% but significantly above Justin Herbert at 3%, suggesting modest differentiation among similarly-positioned candidates. Upward movement would typically follow strong early-season performance or injury to traditional league leaders, while downward pressure comes from competition among numerous capable starters and Prescott's historical ranking relative to top passing-yard producers. Key factors: - Prescott's career passing yard average compared to current league leaders and whether he ranks in the top 5 historically for this metric - Team offensive scheme and projected pass attempts relative to Dallas's typical play-calling patterns and game scripts - Health status of established passing-yard leaders entering the 2026 season and their respective team circumstances - Prescott's age, injury history, and any reported changes to his physical conditioning or performance trajectory - Dallas's playoff positioning and whether late-season games are meaningful contests or blowouts affecting passing volume Contracts: - Will Trevor Lawrence lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Trevor Lawrence — 4¢ Kalshi $655 (weight 67%) - Will Justin Herbert lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Justin Herbert — 3¢ Kalshi $267 (weight 27%) - Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Dak Prescott — 5¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 6%) - Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Joe Burrow — 7¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Jared Goff lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Jared Goff — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Bo Nix — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brock Purdy lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Brock Purdy — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Matthew Stafford — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.545Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflpyds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dak%20Prescott%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Passing%20Yards%20for%20the%202026-2027%20Regular%20Season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev