7% — Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:05 UTC Why this matters: This 7% probability reflects the implied odds that Dak Prescott will accumulate more passing yards than any other NFL quarterback during the 2026-2027 regular season. The assessment appears constrained by competition from higher-ranked alternatives: Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, and Jared Goff all show lower contract prices but higher volume interest, suggesting market participants view them as more likely candidates. Prescott's probability would move significantly based on his actual passing volume and efficiency during the season, as well as relative performance from competing quarterbacks. The market will resolve with final 2026-2027 regular season passing yard totals, which are typically announced in early 2027. Key determinants include offensive system design, injury status across top quarterbacks, and whether any team commits to an unusually high passing volume relative to the league average. Key factors: - Prescott's average passing yards per season compared to the implied leaders (Love, Burrow, Goff) over the past 2-3 completed seasons - The Dallas Cowboys' offensive scheme design for 2026-2027, including run-game emphasis and red-zone strategy - Injury history and current health status of Prescott relative to competing elite passers heading into and during the season - Overall league passing volume trends—whether 2026-2027 features higher or lower total pass attempts across the NFL - Strength of supporting cast, particularly receiving weapons and offensive line performance that enable sustained passing opportunities Contracts: - Will Jordan Love lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Jordan Love — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 58%) - Will Caleb Williams lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Caleb Williams — 9¢ Kalshi $570 (weight 20%) - Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Josh Allen — 11¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 8%) - Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Joe Burrow — 6¢ Kalshi $138 (weight 5%) - Will Jared Goff lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Jared Goff — 12¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 4%) - Will Tyler Shough lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Tyler Shough — 3¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 3%) - Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Dak Prescott — 10¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 1%) - Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Yards for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Matthew Stafford — 4¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 1%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:48.855Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflpyds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dak%20Prescott%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Passing%20Yards%20for%20the%202026-2027%20Regular%20Season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev