9% — Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Kalshi 9% · 6 contracts · $310 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the odds that Jaylen Waddle finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more receiving touchdowns than any other player. At 9%, the market views Waddle as a significant longshot relative to favorites like Amon-Ra St. Brown (22%) and Ja'Marr Chase (10%). Waddle's lower probability likely reflects his historical receiving touchdown volume, team offensive schemes, and the depth of elite receiving talent in the league. The contract will resolve at the conclusion of the 2026-2027 regular season in early 2027, when official NFL statistics determine the season leader. Key uncertainties include Waddle's snap count allocation with the Dolphins, potential injuries to competing receivers, and whether his team's coaching staff emphasizes red-zone receiving targets versus running plays or quarterback rushing attempts.

Key factors:
- Waddle's historical receiving touchdown production compared to current league leaders and his typical role in Miami's offense
- Changes to the Dolphins' offensive scheme, quarterback situation, or personnel deployment in the 2026 offseason
- Injury status of Waddle and top competitors like St. Brown, Chase, and A.J. Brown heading into and during the season
- Target share and red-zone opportunity allocation for Waddle versus volume trends for competing receivers
- Miami's projected win total and offensive pace, which correlates with total scoring opportunities

Contracts:
- Will Amon-Ra St. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 22¢ Kalshi $116 (weight 37%)
- Will Ja'Marr Chase lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 10¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 32%)
- Will Puka Nacua lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Puka Nacua — 3¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 29%)
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%)
- Will Justin Jefferson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Justin Jefferson — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will A.J. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: A.J. Brown — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:50.411Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflrtds
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jaylen%20Waddle%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Receiving%20Touchdowns%20for%20the%202026-2027%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev