6% — Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Kalshi 6% · 11 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 06:20:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 19% probability that Jaylen Waddle will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the 2026-2027 regular season. Waddle currently ranks third among competing receivers in market pricing, behind Ja'Marr Chase at 22% and ahead of Emeka Egbuka at 17%. The probability reflects competition from established high-volume receivers and uncertainty about target allocation and offensive efficiency across the league. Waddle's probability could shift based on offseason trades, coaching changes, or preseason performance indicators. The 2026 NFL regular season begins in September 2026, which will definitively resolve this outcome. Leading the league in receiving touchdowns typically requires sustained target volume, red-zone usage, and staying healthy throughout a 17-game schedule.

Key factors:
- Jaylen Waddle's target share and red-zone touches relative to other elite receivers during the 2026 season
- Miami Dolphins' offensive scheme and whether it prioritizes passing to wide receivers versus other playmakers
- Injury status of competing receivers (Chase, Egbuka, and others) throughout the 2026 regular season
- Waddle's historical touchdown conversion rate compared to the league-leading receiver's typical efficiency
- Team playoff positioning in late season, which may affect playing time or offensive philosophy in final weeks

Contracts:
- Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jaylen Waddle — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Amon-Ra St. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CeeDee Lamb lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: CeeDee Lamb — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Davante Adams lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Davante Adams — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will George Pickens lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: George Pickens — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ja'Marr Chase lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Justin Jefferson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Justin Jefferson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T05:20:50.677Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflrtds
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jaylen%20Waddle%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Receiving%20Touchdowns%20for%20the%202026-2027%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev