9% — Will Ashton Jeanty lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season Kalshi 9% · 11 contracts · $322 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 08:48:48 UTC Why this matters: This market asks whether Ashton Jeanty will accumulate more rushing touchdowns than all other NFL running backs during the 2026-2027 regular season. At 6%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether Jeanty leads the league in this specific metric. The low probability suggests that other backs—particularly Derrick Henry (8%), Omarion Hampton (6%), Christian McCaffrey (6%), and James Cook III (7%)—are viewed as having better odds at the outright lead. The market appears to be pricing in competition from multiple high-performing runners rather than confidence in any single back. Key variables include injury history for top contenders, changes in offensive game plans, workload distribution among backup runners, and seasonal performance momentum. Resolution will occur after the regular season concludes in early January 2027, when official NFL rushing touchdown statistics are finalized. Key factors: - Derrick Henry and James Cook III are trading at higher probabilities (8% and 7% respectively), suggesting market participants view them as more likely leaders than Jeanty - Jeanty's actual workload and scoring opportunities depend on his team's offensive strategy, red-zone usage patterns, and competition from other offensive weapons - Injury status of top rushing touchdown contenders before and during the season will significantly impact touchdown distribution - The market shows no single back with probability above 8%, indicating leadership in rushing TDs is widely dispersed among multiple candidates - Historical consistency: backing into the rushing TD lead typically requires both high volume and high efficiency in the red zone over 17 games Contracts: - Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Josh Allen — 9¢ Kalshi $232 (weight 72%) - Will Jahmyr Gibbs lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 23¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 12%) - Will Javonte Williams lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Javonte Williams — 4¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 9%) - Will Jonathan Taylor lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jonathan Taylor — 8¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 4%) - Will James Cook III lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: James Cook III — 6¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 4%) - Will Christian McCaffrey lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Christian McCaffrey — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ashton Jeanty lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Ashton Jeanty — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cam Skattebo lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Cam Skattebo — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.018Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflrushtds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ashton%20Jeanty%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20rushing%20touchdowns%20for%20the%202026-2027%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev