5% — Will Jonathan Taylor lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season Kalshi 5% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 05:11:45 UTC Why this matters: A 5% probability means the market estimates roughly a 1-in-20 chance that Jonathan Taylor finishes the 2026-2027 NFL season with more rushing yards than all other running backs. This low odds reflects both Taylor's current status in the league and competition from younger backs. Key drivers include Taylor's recent injury history and workload compared to more established bell-cow backs like Jahmyr Gibbs and emerging talent like Ashton Jeanty, who commands higher market probability at 6%. The resolution hinges on how teams deploy their running backs throughout the full 17-game regular season, making weekly production data and late-season performance critical. Market estimates suggest bookmakers view other candidates as substantially more likely to lead the league in this statistical category. Key factors: - Taylor's recent injury history and limited touches relative to lead backs on contending teams - Ashton Jeanty (6¢) and Jahmyr Gibbs (4¢) are assigned higher probabilities, indicating market preference for younger or higher-volume alternatives - The outcome depends entirely on cumulative regular-season rushing yards through all 17 games, resolvable only after the 2026-2027 season concludes - Taylor's current roster situation and projected snap count/workload allocation compared to other league leaders - Competitor running backs' offensive line quality, team passing game strength, and game script tendencies that drive running back opportunity volume Contracts: - Will Jonathan Taylor lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jonathan Taylor — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 58%) - Will Bijan Robinson lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Bijan Robinson — 3¢ Kalshi $940 (weight 42%) - Will Omarion Hampton lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Omarion Hampton — 3¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 1%) - Will Chuba Hubbard lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Chuba Hubbard — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Derrick Henry lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Derrick Henry — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jahmyr Gibbs lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jahmyr Gibbs — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will James Cook III lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: James Cook III — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kenneth Walker III lead Pro Football in rushing yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Kenneth Walker III — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:51.015Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflrushyds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jonathan%20Taylor%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20rushing%20yards%20for%20the%202026-2027%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev