7% — Will Marvin Harrison Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season Kalshi 7% · 8 contracts · $496 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 03:09:18 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses the likelihood that Marvin Harrison Jr. finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more receiving yards than all other players. At 7%, the probability reflects Harrison facing steep competition from established elite receivers. The current level is driven by two factors: Harrison's injury history and role uncertainty within his team's offensive scheme, weighed against the concentrated production required to lead the entire league. The primary catalyst for resolution will be how Harrison performs during the regular season itself, with meaningful clarity emerging by mid-season. Peer contracts show strong favorites like Justin Jefferson (12%) commanding higher probabilities, suggesting markets view multiple receivers as more likely to accumulate peak yardage totals this season. Key factors: - Harrison's available snaps and target share through the first half of the season, compared to volume leaders like Jefferson and St. Brown - Whether Harrison experiences injury that limits his availability during the 17-game schedule - Total team passing volume in his offense relative to volume-friendly systems like the Lions and Texans - Harrison's actual receiving yards pace at midseason relative to the current league leader's trajectory - Competitive field with Jefferson, St. Brown, and others trading at 10-12%, indicating fragmented probability among multiple viable candidates Contracts: - Will Amon-Ra St. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 6¢ Kalshi $493 (weight 99%) - Will Ja'Marr Chase lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Ja'Marr Chase — 6¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Davante Adams lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Davante Adams — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will George Pickens lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: George Pickens — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Justin Jefferson lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Justin Jefferson — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Puka Nacua lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: Puka Nacua — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will A.J. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?: A.J. Brown — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T02:20:51.282Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadernflryds Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Marvin%20Harrison%20Jr.%20lead%20Pro%20Football%20in%20Receiving%20Yards%20for%20the%202026-2027%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev