24% — Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 24% · 18 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:09 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Mark Carney steps down as Canadian Prime Minister within the next 7.5 months. At 14%, the market suggests it's relatively unlikely but not improbable. The current level reflects baseline political stability expectations, though Canadian politics has experienced leadership transitions, and a Prime Minister's tenure can be affected by electoral pressure, party dynamics, or personal circumstances. The main catalysts that would shift this probability include major policy failures, significant polling declines, internal party pressure, or an unexpected resignation announcement. The most immediate uncertainty resolver would be the next federal election timeline or any formal indication from Carney's office about his political future. The relatively modest probability suggests markets currently view his position as reasonably secure through 2026, barring major disruptions to Canadian political conditions. Key factors: - Current polling and approval ratings for Mark Carney's government compared to opposition parties - Timeline and likelihood of a federal election being called before January 1, 2027 - Historical precedent for Canadian Prime Ministers serving full terms versus resigning mid-mandate - Public statements or signals from Carney or senior government figures about leadership continuity - Major policy defeats, confidence votes, or parliamentary dynamics that could destabilize his position Contracts: - Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 48¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 49%) - Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Miguel Díaz-Canel — 53¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 21%) - Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin — 11¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 13%) - Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?: Gustavo Petro — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%) - Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?: Christopher Luxon — 48¢ Kalshi $171 (weight 1%) - Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Friedrich Merz — 10¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 1%) - Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Sanae Takaichi — 10¢ Kalshi $106 (weight 1%) - Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 13¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 1%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.083Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadersout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mark%20Carney%20leave%20Prime%20Minister%20of%20Canada%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev