13% — Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 13% · 15 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:06 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects a 12% chance that Mark Carney ceases to serve as Prime Minister of Canada between today and January 1, 2027—roughly 5.5 months away. The current level suggests markets view his departure as unlikely but not negligible. Key drivers include political stability in Canada's parliamentary system, polling trends on government confidence, and the scheduled timing of the next federal election (currently due by October 2025, though may have already occurred). The primary catalyst for resolution would be either an election outcome or a confidence vote in Parliament that forces a change in leadership. Market pricing on comparable leaders shows Carney at a lower departure probability than Netanyahu (36%) but higher than Xi Jinping (3%), reflecting differences in political system volatility and tenure security across jurisdictions. Key factors: - Federal election timing and results, as a new election would most directly trigger a change in Prime Minister - Current polling data on voter confidence in Carney's government and likelihood of defeating the opposition - Parliamentary confidence mechanics—any loss of majority support or successful non-confidence motion would force immediate departure - International or domestic crises that could destabilize the government between now and year-end - Leadership succession clarity within the ruling party, which affects probability of internal removal scenarios Contracts: - Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Friedrich Merz — 24¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 30%) - Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%) - Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?: Mohammed bin Salman — 5¢ Kalshi $757 (weight 8%) - Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Miguel Díaz-Canel — 14¢ Kalshi $743 (weight 7%) - Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 47¢ Kalshi $723 (weight 7%) - Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 7¢ Kalshi $711 (weight 7%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:49.853Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leadersout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mark%20Carney%20leave%20Prime%20Minister%20of%20Canada%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev