11% — Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 11% · 14 contracts · $124 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:59 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the odds that Kelsey Mitchell will lead the WNBA in three-pointers made during the 2026 regular season. At 11%, the market views Mitchell as a moderate contender but not among the favorites. The primary drivers are shooting volume and efficiency—Mitchell would need both consistent playing time and a high three-point attempt rate to lead the league. Caitlin Clark (29¢) and Rhyne Howard (28¢) are favored, suggesting the market expects one of them to hold the league lead. The prediction will resolve definitively in April 2027 when final 2026 regular season statistics are compiled, depending on each player's games played, minutes per game, and three-point shooting rates across the season. Key factors: - Kelsey Mitchell's career three-point attempt rate (currently among league leaders at ~6 attempts per game) must remain elevated throughout 2026 - Mitchell's availability and games played matter significantly—injury or reduced playing time would substantially lower her chances of leading the league - Caitlin Clark and Rhyne Howard currently trade at 29¢ and 28¢ respectively, indicating the market expects one of these two to lead rather than Mitchell - No player has led the WNBA in three-pointers made with fewer than ~240 makes in recent seasons, requiring consistency over a full 40-game season - Mitchell's shooting efficiency from three must remain competitive with other high-volume shooters to accumulate the highest total count Contracts: - Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Caitlin Clark — 5¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 76%) - Will Rhyne Howard lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Rhyne Howard — 80¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 24%) - Will Kayla McBride lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Kayla McBride — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Mitchell — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Allisha Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Allisha Gray — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kelsey Plum lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Plum — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jewell Loyd lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Jewell Loyd — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sabrina Ionescu lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Sabrina Ionescu — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leaderwnba3pt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kelsey%20Mitchell%20lead%20Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20in%20total%20three%20pointers%20made%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev