24% — Will Alyssa Thomas lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season Kalshi 24% · 9 contracts · $384 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:18:43 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects a 27% probability that Alyssa Thomas will lead the WNBA in assists per game during the 2026 regular season. Thomas is a strong playmaker and primary ball-handler for her team, but faces direct competition from other elite distributors, particularly Caitlin Clark (47% probability) and Paige Bueckers (5% probability). Thomas's likelihood depends on whether she maintains her typical assist volume, stays healthy through a full season, and whether her teammates' offensive usage patterns favor high-volume passing opportunities. The market clearly favors Clark as the leader, suggesting either that she's expected to increase her playmaking role in 2026 or that Thomas's past seasons set lower historical benchmarks. The regular season runs October 2025 through September 2026, with the final stat lines determining the outcome definitively. Key factors: - Alyssa Thomas's historical assists-per-game average and whether 2026 represents growth, decline, or stability from that baseline - Whether Thomas's team's offensive system and teammate composition create higher or lower assist opportunities than competitors - Caitlin Clark's projected role and usage rate, as the 47% contract indicates she is the aggregate favorite to lead the league - Injury risk over a full 40-game season, which would eliminate Thomas from contention if she misses significant games - Team performance and pace of play, as winning teams and faster-paced offenses typically generate more assist opportunities Contracts: - Will Jordin Canada lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Jordin Canada — 93¢ Kalshi $289 (weight 75%) - Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: A'ja Wilson — 6¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 20%) - Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Caitlin Clark — 33¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 4%) - Will Alyssa Thomas lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Alyssa Thomas — 50¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Veronica Burton lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Veronica Burton — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chelsea Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Chelsea Gray — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Paige Bueckers lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Paige Bueckers — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Breanna Stewart lead Women's Pro Basketball in assists per game for the 2026 regular season?: Breanna Stewart — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.115Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leaderwnbaast Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alyssa%20Thomas%20lead%20Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20in%20assists%20per%20game%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev