13% — Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season
Kalshi 13% · 12 contracts · $100 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This question asks whether A'ja Wilson will finish the 2026 WNBA regular season as the league leader in scoring average. The 22% probability reflects significant competition from other elite scorers, particularly Paige Bueckers (7¢) and Kelsey Plum (28¢). Wilson's scoring rate depends on her offensive role, injury status, and team strategy for the Las Vegas Aces. The probability would shift based on early-season performance trends and whether high-volume scorers like Bueckers or Plum maintain scoring pace. The 2026 WNBA regular season will conclude in September 2026, at which point final scoring statistics will determine the outcome. Market pricing suggests the field of potential leaders is fragmented, indicating uncertainty about which player will lead.

Key factors:
- A'ja Wilson's average points per game in early 2026 season games relative to competing scorers like Paige Bueckers and Kelsey Plum
- Las Vegas Aces' offensive system and how many possessions Wilson receives relative to previous seasons
- Injury status of Wilson and other leading scorers throughout the regular season
- Volume of three-point attempts by Wilson versus traditional post-scoring pattern, affecting PPG totals
- Comparative scoring rates of Paige Bueckers in her first full WNBA season versus established veterans

Contracts:
- Will A'ja Wilson lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: A'ja Wilson — 61¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 100%)
- Will Napheesa Collier lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Napheesa Collier — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Mitchell — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kelsey Plum lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Plum — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Paige Bueckers lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Paige Bueckers — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Allisha Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Allisha Gray — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Breanna Stewart lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Breanna Stewart — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jackie Young lead Women's Pro Basketball in points per game for the 2026 regular season?: Jackie Young — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:49.323Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leaderwnbapts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20A'ja%20Wilson%20lead%20Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20in%20points%20per%20game%20for%20the%202026%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev