7% — Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Leagues Cup
Kalshi 7% · 4 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:39 UTC

Why this matters:
The 6% probability reflects market assessment that Guadalajara has roughly a 1-in-17 chance of winning the 2026 Leagues Cup, a competition featuring top clubs from Mexico and Major League Soccer. This relatively low odds compared to favorites like Miami (5%) and Toluca (12%) suggests traders view Guadalajara as a weaker contender despite the team's historical stature in Mexican football. The probability would likely shift based on squad composition changes during the transfer window, recent tournament performance, and injury status of key players heading into the competition. The tournament structure and format—if it favors certain playing styles or Mexican clubs specifically—could also influence odds. The main resolution point will be the tournament's actual start date and initial match results, which would either validate current valuations or force significant repricing. Current trading volume of $251 in 24 hours indicates modest market interest in this specific outcome.

Key factors:
- Guadalajara's recent domestic league form and squad strength relative to other Mexican entries (America, Toluca, Cruz Azul) who show higher contract prices
- Caliber of international competition, particularly MLS teams favored more heavily in the market (Miami at 5%, suggesting strong preference for American clubs)
- Transfer activity and roster changes for Guadalajara between now and tournament start that would affect competitive capability
- Tournament format structure and whether it systematically advantages or disadvantages Mexican versus MLS-based teams
- Historical Guadalajara performance in Leagues Cup and similar inter-league competitions under current management

Contracts:
- Will Toluca win the 2026 Leagues Cup?: Toluca — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 32%)
- Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup?: America — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 30%)
- Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Leagues Cup?: Cruz Azul — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%)
- Will Columbus win the 2026 Leagues Cup?: Columbus — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.642Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leaguescup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Guadalajara%20win%20the%202026%20Leagues%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev