64% — Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms
Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026 at 64% · Kalshi 64% · 3 contracts · $6 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026 — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 29¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 67%)
- Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026 — 16¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leavecherfilus
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sheila%20Cherfilus-McCormick%20leave%20the%20House%20before%20the%20midterms
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev