30% — Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms
Kalshi 30% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:13:30 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that all four named House members—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—will depart the chamber before November 3, 2026. The 60% reading suggests traders view departures as more likely than not, though uncertainty remains about whether each individual will actually leave. The key driver is whether current departure signals, resignation announcements, or retirement decisions materialize into actual departures with documented effective dates. The timeline extends to the general midterm election, making this sensitive to any formal resignation filings, redistricting decisions, or announced vacancies. The significant gap between the 60% pre-election probability and the 20% probability for departures by July 1 suggests most expected movement is concentrated in the late summer or fall.

Key factors:
- Current official status and publicly stated intentions of each of the four representatives regarding 2026 continuation
- Number of documented resignation letters or formal departure announcements filed with House administration
- Redistricting outcomes and primary election results that might accelerate or prevent departures
- Historical baseline: typical rate of House member departures in non-election versus election years
- Any announced special elections, vacancies, or leadership changes affecting these specific seats between now and November 2026

Contracts:
- Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.177Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leavecherfilus
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sheila%20Cherfilus-McCormick%20leave%20the%20House%20before%20the%20midterms
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev