30% — Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026 Kalshi 30% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:19 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves YES if all four named representatives—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—depart the House before July 1, 2026, with official effective departure dates recorded. At 64%, the market suggests this outcome is more likely than not, though still uncertain. The probability reflects that departures are individually possible but requiring all four to leave within two months is a high bar. Key drivers include voluntary retirements, special election triggers, or unexpected circumstances affecting each representative. The contract becomes increasingly constrained as time passes; by early June, any representative who hasn't announced departure effectively lowers the probability toward zero. Recent political shifts, personal circumstances, or announced retirements in May 2026 would be primary catalysts for significant price movement. Without current announcements of coordinated departures, the 64% level appears to price in a non-trivial but not dominant expectation of multiple simultaneous House exits. Key factors: - As of May 3, 2026, none of these four representatives have announced confirmed departure dates; the contract requires all four to achieve official effective departures within 59 days - If even one representative has not departed by June 30, the contract resolves NO, making the all-or-nothing structure highly restrictive compared to partial outcomes - Political circumstances (health issues, electoral challenges, leadership roles elsewhere) that would trigger House departures are not uniform across these four individuals and would need to align unusually - The deadline creates accelerating pressure: by mid-June, any representative without a filed departure notice essentially eliminates that person's contribution to a YES resolution - Public announcements or resignation letters with specified effective dates would be the primary real-time signals; absence of such filings in May-June would push probability sharply downward Contracts: - Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.289Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leavehousecombo Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%C2%A0number%20of%20Representatives%20Tony%20Gonzales%2C%20Eric%20Swalwell%2C%20Cory%20Mills%2C%20and%20Sheila%20Cherfilus-McCormick%20who%20leave%20the%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives%20(with%20an%20actual%20departure%20date%2C%20per%20EFFECTIVELEAVE%20contract)%20be%20exactly%204%20before%20July%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev