34% — Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before May 1, 2026
Kalshi 34% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This market assesses the probability that U.S. Representative Cory Mills will leave Congress before May 1, 2026—whether through resignation, expulsion, or other means. The 66% probability reflects expectations about potential developments in Mills's tenure, though the timeframe is notably short (less than one year from today). Key drivers of this high probability likely include specific pending investigations, health matters, or other documented circumstances that could force or incentivize departure. The market will resolve based on whether Mills remains a seated member through April 30, 2026. Comparable markets show low probabilities for similar congressional departures (3-6%), suggesting this contract reflects particular circumstances unique to Mills rather than baseline congressional turnover. Resolution hinges on verifiable Congressional Quarterly records and official House records through the deadline.

Key factors:
- Current Congressional status and any formal ethics investigations or disciplinary proceedings against Mills as of May 2026
- Documented health or personal circumstances that could prompt voluntary departure
- Changes in party affiliation, primary challenges, or electoral positioning that might affect holding the seat
- Any pending legal proceedings with potential outcomes before May 1, 2026
- Comparison to baseline congressional departure rates: markets price similar representatives at 3-6%, suggesting this contract reflects Mills-specific risk factors

Contracts:
- Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms?: Before Nov 3, 2026 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:50.546Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leavemills
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cory%20Mills%20be%20out%20as%20Congressman%20before%20May%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev