5% — Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Leader: Amal Movement (Amal) at 5% · Polymarket 5% · 2 contracts · $863 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:09:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Lebanese Forces party will win the most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary elections. The Lebanese Forces, a Christian-majority party, is currently assigned an 8% chance despite historical positioning as a major political player. Market pricing likely reflects uncertainty around Lebanon's fragile political environment, including the ongoing influence of Hezbollah and sectarian power-sharing dynamics under the confessional system. The party's actual electoral performance will depend on voter turnout, coalition arrangements, and whether the election occurs as scheduled. Parliamentary elections in Lebanon remain difficult to predict due to frequent political instability and the complexity of its sectarian-based electoral system. The next major catalyst would be the official announcement of election dates and preliminary campaign results, which would clarify which parties can mobilize voter support and form viable coalitions.

Key factors:
- Lebanese Forces historical parliamentary performance and current polling versus the 8% market probability assigned
- The timing and likelihood of elections actually occurring on schedule given Lebanon's history of delayed or postponed electoral processes
- Hezbollah's expected seat allocation and influence on coalition formation, which affects whether other parties like Lebanese Forces can lead government formation
- Voter turnout rates and demographic shifts in Lebanese constituencies that determine Christian vs. Sunni vs. Shia representation
- International involvement and financing of various factions, particularly regional actors' support for competing political blocs

Contracts:
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner: Amal Movement (Amal) — 5¢ Polymarket $321 (weight 37%)
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner: Lebanese Forces (LF) — 4¢ Polymarket $542 (weight 63%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Lebanon%20Parliamentary%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev