33% — Leicester City FC vs. Hull City AFC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Leader: Kansas City at 33% · Kalshi 33% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 13:05:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 34% probability indicates a relatively unlikely outcome for more than 2.5 goals in a Leicester City vs. Hull City match. This reflects typical scoring patterns in English football, where defensive organization and team form heavily influence goal totals. The probability could shift based on team lineups, recent offensive efficiency, and defensive vulnerability of both sides. Closer to match day, injury reports and starting XI confirmation often cause meaningful adjustments. The primary catalyst will be match kickoff, when actual goal-scoring opportunities materialize or fail to materialize according to the teams' attacking and defensive execution.

Key factors:
- Recent over/under splits for both teams in comparable fixtures show historical goal-scoring frequency
- Current league position and defensive record indicate relative ability to prevent or allow multiple goals
- Head-to-head meeting history between Leicester and Hull typically produces specific scoring patterns
- Team injury status and squad rotation decisions immediately before kickoff can significantly alter offensive output
- Weather conditions and pitch state on match day can suppress or elevate scoring likelihood

Contracts:
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City — 33¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 93%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 11¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:49.449Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/leicester-city-fc-vs-hull-city-afc-more-markets-ou-25
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Leicester%20City%20FC%20vs.%20Hull%20City%20AFC%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20O%2FU%202.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev