11% — Will the final score be Draw 1-1
Leader: Draw 1-1 at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 20 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
A 1-1 draw in this CF Cruz Azul match is currently priced at 5% on Kalshi, indicating markets view it as an unlikely outcome. The probability reflects expectations about both teams' attacking and defensive capabilities, with Cruz Azul favored across multiple winning scorelines (2-0 at 8%, 1-0 at 6%, 2-1 at 6%). The draw probability could move higher if team lineups suggest defensive football or if recent form indicates reduced offensive output from both sides. Conversely, it could decline if injury news removes key defensive players. The match outcome will be determined on its scheduled date, resolving all uncertainty once final whistle occurs. Current pricing suggests market participants expect either a Cruz Azul victory or a more unusual scoreline than parity.

Key factors:
- Cruz Azul appears favored across most winning scenarios (multiple contracts above 5%), suggesting asymmetric attacking capability relative to opponent
- A 1-1 draw carries only 5% probability despite being one of three scorelines in a typical small-outcome set, indicating low expectations for balanced goal output
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the 24-hour period suggests limited recent market conviction or activity in this specific match
- Teams' recent defensive and offensive efficiency metrics, lineup availability, and head-to-head history would determine realistic scoring likelihood
- Match kickoff date and team injury reports closer to kickoff will be critical catalysts for probability movement

Contracts:
- Will the final score be Draw 1-1?: Draw 1-1 — 11¢ Kalshi $324 (weight 2%)
- Will the final score be CF Monterrey wins 2-1?: CF Monterrey wins 2-1 — 10¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 22%)
- Will the final score be CF Pachuca wins 2-1?: CF Pachuca wins 2-1 — 10¢ Kalshi $971 (weight 5%)
- Will the final score be CF Pachuca wins 2-0?: CF Pachuca wins 2-0 — 10¢ Kalshi $846 (weight 4%)
- Will the final score be CF Pachuca wins 1-0?: CF Pachuca wins 1-0 — 10¢ Kalshi $297 (weight 2%)
- Will the final score be CF Monterrey wins 1-0?: CF Monterrey wins 1-0 — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will the final score be Club Necaxa wins 2-1?: Club Necaxa wins 2-1 — 7¢ Kalshi $336 (weight 2%)
- Will the final score be CF Pachuca wins 3-0?: CF Pachuca wins 3-0 — 7¢ Kalshi $283 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-26T10:20:50.348Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ligamxscore
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20final%20score%20be%20Draw%201-1
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev