8% — Will Boaz Bismuth win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list Kalshi 8% · 13 contracts · $266 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the likelihood that Boaz Bismuth will receive the most votes in the Likud party primary determining the top position on its 2026 Knesset candidate list. At 7%, it positions Bismuth as a minor contender compared to frontrunners Amir Ohana (28%) and Yariv Levin (23%). The relatively low probability likely reflects Bismuth's current standing within Likud's internal political hierarchy and public visibility among party members. The primary outcome will depend on how Bismuth's profile and support evolve relative to established rivals, and whether any political developments shift the preferences of Likud voters. The actual primary election will definitively resolve this question by revealing the nationwide vote distribution among candidates. Key factors: - Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin command 51% combined probability, suggesting they are the primary contenders with established positions in the party leadership - Boaz Bismuth's 7% probability indicates limited current support relative to the frontrunners, based on available polling or member sentiment data - The remaining probability dispersed among other candidates (Karhi 3%, Chikli 3%, others) suggests limited competition outside the top tier - Low trading volume on Bismuth's contract ($0 in 24-hour volume) indicates sparse market interest and potentially limited information flowing to traders about his candidacy - The primary election date and any interim developments in Likud politics or changes in candidate positioning could significantly shift probabilities between now and the vote Contracts: - Will Tally Gotliv win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Tally Gotliv — 10¢ Kalshi $229 (weight 86%) - Will Yariv Levin win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Yariv Levin — 17¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 11%) - Will Amir Ohana win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Amir Ohana — 36¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) - Will Amichai Chikli win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Amichai Chikli — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Boaz Bismuth win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Boaz Bismuth — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will David Amsalem win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: David Amsalem — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Eli Cohen win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Eli Cohen — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gila Gamliel win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list?: Gila Gamliel — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.855Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/likudprimary Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Boaz%20Bismuth%20win%20the%20top%20nationwide%20vote-getter%20in%20the%202026%20Likud%20primary%20for%20its%2026th%20Knesset%20candidate%20list Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev